And Now For Something Completely Different
I know that it seems like I'm completely obsessed with hockey. Well, I am. But, I also find time to ignore my family on Sunday (when there are usually only like two NHL games on) by watching the NFL go to work.
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I grew up a suffering Bear fan, and then became a Ram fan in accordance with ordinance STL8c56.67t-7: Chicagoans Relocating to St. Louis. The ordinance requires that, while not dropping alliance with the Bears (due to the large number of fans in St. Louis and So-Ill thanks to the Crapinals Football team that once played here and the absence of any football for eight years after they left), still requires allegiance to the local affiliate. The ordinance has some tricky language concerning the Cardinals/Cubs and virtually no mention of the White Sox (of course, even Chicago barely recognizes the ChiSox, even after the WS win). There is a codicil about the Bulls v Hawks, but most of that is largely considered archaic. I imagine that it'll come up in some meeting, but not until the new owners buy the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets and move them to Gateway City.
But, I digress. I participate in a NFL pool where everyone picks the winner of each game against the spread. Against the spread being the key phrase. Picking winners isn't easy, but it's not nearly as hard as picking against the odds that the devils in Vegas make it. On top of that, you are allowed to select one "Lock" and one "Upset" pick. The Lock is your "can't miss" pick. That team WILL cover. If you hit your Lock, you get an extra two points. If you miss, you lose two points. Your Upset also garners you two points. Missing the Upset doesn't hurt you.
Bottom line, at this point of the year, there are 16 games every week, so a perfect week would be 20 points. Winners usually net around 13-15. Hitting the Lock and Upset usually puts you in the running. Blowing the Lock means you're out for the week.
Since most hockey fans have at least some passing interest in football, here are my picks for the week. By the way, I'm damn near the bottom of the pile this year, picking at a 45% rate against the spread, but the got-damn Locks have been killing me. In fact, I didn't pick a Lock right for five weeks, when I finally fell onto Pats over Falcons. I followed that with an good one on an inexplicable Raiders Lock against the Titans (I hate that team) in week eight and a Chargers over Saints Lock (OT, unbelievably) in week 12. That's it. Three Locks in 12 weeks. No wonder I'm a bottom feeder. The blown Locks are even more amazing that the ones I hit. Rams v 49ers seemed like a, well, Lock until the Rams fielded the opening kickoff with one foot out of bounds on their own 1 yard line. Doh! After that it's a roster of bad decisions and non-covering jackasses. Taking the Ravens v Titans in week 2. Taking the Chiefs (and a bunch of points) v Broncos. The Bengals by 7 over the craptastic Texans [still burns me]. The list goes on and on.
Anyway, here are my picks for the week, and the flawed logic that Vegas is counting on.
Falcons at Panthers (-3). I'm taking the Falcons, despite the grass on the road. I've seen the Panthers play like, once in the last four years. Jake Delhomme looks like the gym teacher at my high school who was a rumored coke addict. So, I'm going with Mike Vick and the ATL running game against the Coach Coke stunt double and quiet Steve Smith.
Bills at Dolphins (-4). If there is any team I know less about than the Dolphins, it's the Bills. What I do know is that neither of these teams have a quarterback that ever make headlines except for those that start, "[QB] Can't Rally Team Late." Four points seems huge for these two, but it could also be a rout. In the end, I'm going with the Bills and MaGahee in the town where he starred in college over the supereior coaching of Saban v Mularkey. By the way, how much confidence can you have in a coach named Mularkey? I mean, it's a term your grandparents used, but still, it's hardly a confidence inspiring surname. Mike Killer or Mike Executioner is going to have a better record than a Mike Mularkey, all other things being equal. I guarantee it.
Bengals at Steelers (-3.5). The Gals. These guys are Colts Light and the Colts beat these guys by 19. I'm guessing the Le Tigre come up with at least a 7 point win. I'm so confident on this one, that I'm doubling up my special points situations and taking the Gals as my Upset-Lock. I think that they'll win outright, mainly because Rudi Johnson will keep 'em honest, while Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson go Peyton-Rodney on them. Did you hear the story about how they drove to an Indy together? Of course you did. It's the most over-played story since saints tight end Ernie Conwell bought a Katrina victim an engagement ring for his girlfriend. Enough, already.
Cowboys at Giants (-3). I forgot to mention that my pool has no push, so a 3 point win on a 3 point spread is a winner. This game is a field goal game. At home, I'm taking the Giants. In Dallas, I probably go the other way on this.
Packers at Bears (-7). Soldier Field now looks like a UFO smashed into it. That doesn't mean jack shite when it comes down to this: the Bears and their fans hate the Packers more than anything. Bear fans would be OK with a 2-14 season as long as the two wins were against Green Bay. The Packers suck so bad this year that you can actually get tickets to a game in Lambeau. But this game isn't in Lambeau. It's in Alien Soldier Field, and it's going to be loud in there. And Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher and the rest of the defense will be great. Kyle Orton and the rest of the offense will be safe/adequate and the Bears will walk away with a seven point win.
Texans at Ravens (-8). Houston could have had their last good breath stolen from them by the Rammies last week, but they aren't giving up an 8 pt loss to the "What's offense" Ravens. Even on the road. Tejas, bay-be.
Jags (-3) at Browns. This was a no-brainer until soon-to-be-McNair got hurt (again). Can't his linemen just carry him around like they had to in college? I'm taking the Brownies, just because I know how crazy that stadium can get during crappy games. I'll regret this one when the replacement kid goes Fitzpatrick on us and wins the game with his arm.
Vikings (-3) v Lions. As a Central Division kid, I'm just hoping that both teams lose. Barring that, I'm going with the Vikings, who are using old-ass Brad Johnson to play young-ass Kyle Orton safe football and win close games by not having Daunte Culpepper throw 5 picks a game.
Bucs (-3.5) at Saints. Saying that the Bucs are AT the Saints is like saying Katrina kinda screwed up the Superdome. The Saints had one good emotion game in them, and that was the first game of the year. These guys suck and their QB Aaron Brooks, as mediocre as he is, is still one of the most over-rated QBs in the game. What's his killed-my-team to saved-my-team ratio? Got to be at least 5-1. Bucs fo-shizzle. In fact, this one was damn near my Lock. Hell, after this week, I might Lock the Saints' opponents the rest of the way.
Titans at Colts (-15). This used to be a good game. I would have taken the points on this until I saw the Steeler game. Colts.
Cardinals (-3) at 49ers. Look, I understand that the Niners can get squirelly. I also know that they can surprise teams who look past them (Rams/Seahawks). But come on, Kurt Warner, who God and Brenda and Kevin Slaten clearly want to win, knows he's playing for a contract right now. Warner knows that if he gets benched or plays crappy the rest of the way, he is done in the NFL as a starter. He'll be the vet backup for another couple years and then he's on the downhill slope from back up to clipboard holder to motivational speaker to assistant financial advisor to Sunday school teacher to grocery store checker. Leaving him one step ahead of where his Cinderella story started. How bad would it suck to be his bag boy? Anyway, for today, I'm taking him and the Cards.
Skins v Rams (-3). Going with the "Rams at home, opponent on the road" scheme here. More interesting than the game is the Over/Under on the times you hear the name "Harvard" during the TV broacast. I'm saying it's at least 14 times.
Broncos (-1) at Chiefs. This division eats itself alive. Too much offense on both teams, and with KC at home, I'm going with the Chefs. Great googeley moogeley. Plus, while the Broncos get the Mile High oxygen advantage in Denver, the KC boys get the Barbeque Lung effect their opponents have to counter.
Jets at Pats (-10). Ok, the Jets are so bad that even Testeverde has been signed and benched, but this isn't a Patriots team that can beat anyone by 10 anymore. seriously. Even when they were good and had a secondary they didn't beat anyone by ten. Jets (points).
Raiders at Chargers (-11) . Eleven is a weird number, but Kerry Collins has underthrown more balls to a wide open Randy Moss than a newby porn star has under... y'know, I'm gonna let that one go. Bottom line, the Raiders are not good and the Chargers would LOVE to stick one to them in SD. Plus, LaDainian is good for two scores himself.
Seahawks (-4) v Eagles. This had potential like six weeks ago. Now the only real concern is whether the hawks can win on the road or not. They always seem to blow up away from Seattle, plus they blow up at home a lot too. Who wins, the Seahawks, or the opponent of the Suicidal Seahawks? This feels like the "Want To Live" Seahawks.
So, there you go. Absolutely do not bet anything based on this, because I know way more about hockey than football, and Vegas knows lines better than me. Go Bears, go Rams.
Did you hear that our QB went to Harvard?
As I mentioned in an earlier post, I grew up a suffering Bear fan, and then became a Ram fan in accordance with ordinance STL8c56.67t-7: Chicagoans Relocating to St. Louis. The ordinance requires that, while not dropping alliance with the Bears (due to the large number of fans in St. Louis and So-Ill thanks to the Crapinals Football team that once played here and the absence of any football for eight years after they left), still requires allegiance to the local affiliate. The ordinance has some tricky language concerning the Cardinals/Cubs and virtually no mention of the White Sox (of course, even Chicago barely recognizes the ChiSox, even after the WS win). There is a codicil about the Bulls v Hawks, but most of that is largely considered archaic. I imagine that it'll come up in some meeting, but not until the new owners buy the New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets and move them to Gateway City.
But, I digress. I participate in a NFL pool where everyone picks the winner of each game against the spread. Against the spread being the key phrase. Picking winners isn't easy, but it's not nearly as hard as picking against the odds that the devils in Vegas make it. On top of that, you are allowed to select one "Lock" and one "Upset" pick. The Lock is your "can't miss" pick. That team WILL cover. If you hit your Lock, you get an extra two points. If you miss, you lose two points. Your Upset also garners you two points. Missing the Upset doesn't hurt you.
Bottom line, at this point of the year, there are 16 games every week, so a perfect week would be 20 points. Winners usually net around 13-15. Hitting the Lock and Upset usually puts you in the running. Blowing the Lock means you're out for the week.
Since most hockey fans have at least some passing interest in football, here are my picks for the week. By the way, I'm damn near the bottom of the pile this year, picking at a 45% rate against the spread, but the got-damn Locks have been killing me. In fact, I didn't pick a Lock right for five weeks, when I finally fell onto Pats over Falcons. I followed that with an good one on an inexplicable Raiders Lock against the Titans (I hate that team) in week eight and a Chargers over Saints Lock (OT, unbelievably) in week 12. That's it. Three Locks in 12 weeks. No wonder I'm a bottom feeder. The blown Locks are even more amazing that the ones I hit. Rams v 49ers seemed like a, well, Lock until the Rams fielded the opening kickoff with one foot out of bounds on their own 1 yard line. Doh! After that it's a roster of bad decisions and non-covering jackasses. Taking the Ravens v Titans in week 2. Taking the Chiefs (and a bunch of points) v Broncos. The Bengals by 7 over the craptastic Texans [still burns me]. The list goes on and on.
Anyway, here are my picks for the week, and the flawed logic that Vegas is counting on.
Falcons at Panthers (-3). I'm taking the Falcons, despite the grass on the road. I've seen the Panthers play like, once in the last four years. Jake Delhomme looks like the gym teacher at my high school who was a rumored coke addict. So, I'm going with Mike Vick and the ATL running game against the Coach Coke stunt double and quiet Steve Smith.
Bills at Dolphins (-4). If there is any team I know less about than the Dolphins, it's the Bills. What I do know is that neither of these teams have a quarterback that ever make headlines except for those that start, "[QB] Can't Rally Team Late." Four points seems huge for these two, but it could also be a rout. In the end, I'm going with the Bills and MaGahee in the town where he starred in college over the supereior coaching of Saban v Mularkey. By the way, how much confidence can you have in a coach named Mularkey? I mean, it's a term your grandparents used, but still, it's hardly a confidence inspiring surname. Mike Killer or Mike Executioner is going to have a better record than a Mike Mularkey, all other things being equal. I guarantee it.
Bengals at Steelers (-3.5). The Gals. These guys are Colts Light and the Colts beat these guys by 19. I'm guessing the Le Tigre come up with at least a 7 point win. I'm so confident on this one, that I'm doubling up my special points situations and taking the Gals as my Upset-Lock. I think that they'll win outright, mainly because Rudi Johnson will keep 'em honest, while Carson Palmer and Chad Johnson go Peyton-Rodney on them. Did you hear the story about how they drove to an Indy together? Of course you did. It's the most over-played story since saints tight end Ernie Conwell bought a Katrina victim an engagement ring for his girlfriend. Enough, already.
Cowboys at Giants (-3). I forgot to mention that my pool has no push, so a 3 point win on a 3 point spread is a winner. This game is a field goal game. At home, I'm taking the Giants. In Dallas, I probably go the other way on this.
Packers at Bears (-7). Soldier Field now looks like a UFO smashed into it. That doesn't mean jack shite when it comes down to this: the Bears and their fans hate the Packers more than anything. Bear fans would be OK with a 2-14 season as long as the two wins were against Green Bay. The Packers suck so bad this year that you can actually get tickets to a game in Lambeau. But this game isn't in Lambeau. It's in Alien Soldier Field, and it's going to be loud in there. And Lovie Smith and Brian Urlacher and the rest of the defense will be great. Kyle Orton and the rest of the offense will be safe/adequate and the Bears will walk away with a seven point win.
Texans at Ravens (-8). Houston could have had their last good breath stolen from them by the Rammies last week, but they aren't giving up an 8 pt loss to the "What's offense" Ravens. Even on the road. Tejas, bay-be.
Jags (-3) at Browns. This was a no-brainer until soon-to-be-McNair got hurt (again). Can't his linemen just carry him around like they had to in college? I'm taking the Brownies, just because I know how crazy that stadium can get during crappy games. I'll regret this one when the replacement kid goes Fitzpatrick on us and wins the game with his arm.
Vikings (-3) v Lions. As a Central Division kid, I'm just hoping that both teams lose. Barring that, I'm going with the Vikings, who are using old-ass Brad Johnson to play young-ass Kyle Orton safe football and win close games by not having Daunte Culpepper throw 5 picks a game.
Bucs (-3.5) at Saints. Saying that the Bucs are AT the Saints is like saying Katrina kinda screwed up the Superdome. The Saints had one good emotion game in them, and that was the first game of the year. These guys suck and their QB Aaron Brooks, as mediocre as he is, is still one of the most over-rated QBs in the game. What's his killed-my-team to saved-my-team ratio? Got to be at least 5-1. Bucs fo-shizzle. In fact, this one was damn near my Lock. Hell, after this week, I might Lock the Saints' opponents the rest of the way.
Titans at Colts (-15). This used to be a good game. I would have taken the points on this until I saw the Steeler game. Colts.
Cardinals (-3) at 49ers. Look, I understand that the Niners can get squirelly. I also know that they can surprise teams who look past them (Rams/Seahawks). But come on, Kurt Warner, who God and Brenda and Kevin Slaten clearly want to win, knows he's playing for a contract right now. Warner knows that if he gets benched or plays crappy the rest of the way, he is done in the NFL as a starter. He'll be the vet backup for another couple years and then he's on the downhill slope from back up to clipboard holder to motivational speaker to assistant financial advisor to Sunday school teacher to grocery store checker. Leaving him one step ahead of where his Cinderella story started. How bad would it suck to be his bag boy? Anyway, for today, I'm taking him and the Cards.
Skins v Rams (-3). Going with the "Rams at home, opponent on the road" scheme here. More interesting than the game is the Over/Under on the times you hear the name "Harvard" during the TV broacast. I'm saying it's at least 14 times.
Broncos (-1) at Chiefs. This division eats itself alive. Too much offense on both teams, and with KC at home, I'm going with the Chefs. Great googeley moogeley. Plus, while the Broncos get the Mile High oxygen advantage in Denver, the KC boys get the Barbeque Lung effect their opponents have to counter.
Jets at Pats (-10). Ok, the Jets are so bad that even Testeverde has been signed and benched, but this isn't a Patriots team that can beat anyone by 10 anymore. seriously. Even when they were good and had a secondary they didn't beat anyone by ten. Jets (points).
Raiders at Chargers (-11) . Eleven is a weird number, but Kerry Collins has underthrown more balls to a wide open Randy Moss than a newby porn star has under... y'know, I'm gonna let that one go. Bottom line, the Raiders are not good and the Chargers would LOVE to stick one to them in SD. Plus, LaDainian is good for two scores himself.
Seahawks (-4) v Eagles. This had potential like six weeks ago. Now the only real concern is whether the hawks can win on the road or not. They always seem to blow up away from Seattle, plus they blow up at home a lot too. Who wins, the Seahawks, or the opponent of the Suicidal Seahawks? This feels like the "Want To Live" Seahawks.
So, there you go. Absolutely do not bet anything based on this, because I know way more about hockey than football, and Vegas knows lines better than me. Go Bears, go Rams.
Did you hear that our QB went to Harvard?
posted by gallagher @ 1:19 AM
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